So by now, everyone knows that Blackrock and the rest of the hedge funds have filed for the Bitcoin ETF and people are much more optimistic that they will be approved by the SEC this time around. If we recall, back in October 2021, there were murmurs that Bitcoin futures ETF will be approved and this resulted in a hug Bitcoin run, which ultimately ended up painting a double top at 69K in November. With the anticipation of the Bitcoin futures ETF, Bitcoin went from 40K to 67K (+68%) in about 2-3 weeks from late September of mid October when futures ETF was approved. During this ascent, all the alts bled in SATs against the BTC. From the time of approval (October 15, 2021), Bitcoin actually dumped a bit but recovered and stagnated for a month. This was when ETH and the rest of the alts went through a mini alt season as the SATs recovered. And then, a month later, the whole market dumped from 69K quickly to 42K in 2-3 weeks. I think something similar will follow leading to the Bitcoin ETF approval date. So IF Bitcoin spot ETF gets approved in August (most likely, there will be a delay, but it is possible that approval can come soon), then I suspect that prices will follow similar (BTC runs first, alts follow, market dump). I don’t think the liquidity is there to pump Bitcoin to +68% like the last time, but it is conceivable that it can pump to 36K-42K range. One reason being is that there is a lot of accumulation in the 30K range right now so I think the whales are accumulating here to go on a huge run soon. If that happens, then the swing trading plan is obvious. Start with 100% BTC right now If a run comes between now and the first approval date (mid/late August), recognize that this is the “buy the rumor” run of spot ETF. Most likely, alts will bleed against Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin and wait for the news. Usually, with the ETF, there will be leaks already in place on whether it will be accepted or not (similar thing happened with the futures). If it seems like it will be approved, then switch to alts later. If it seems like it will be rejected or delayed, switch to cash as “sell the news” will occur. Once enough profit has been made in alts, anticipate the market dump similar to 2021. Moreover, usually, there is a huge correction before the halving anyway so crypto will be overbought anyway. Buy back once Bitcoin has corrected quite a bit from the 36-42K range (I am thinking it goes down to 20-24K range again). 6). Wait for the halving run in 2024. ________ So that will be the ETF trading plan. submitted by /u/simmol [link] [comments]
Cryptocurrency News & Discussion
So by now, everyone knows that Blackrock and the rest of the hedge funds have filed for the Bitcoin ETF and people are much more optimistic that they will be approved by the SEC this time around. If we recall, back in October 2021, there were murmurs that Bitcoin futures ETF will be approved and this resulted in a hug Bitcoin run, which ultimately ended up painting a double top at 69K in November.
With the anticipation of the Bitcoin futures ETF, Bitcoin went from 40K to 67K (+68%) in about 2-3 weeks from late September of mid October when futures ETF was approved. During this ascent, all the alts bled in SATs against the BTC. From the time of approval (October 15, 2021), Bitcoin actually dumped a bit but recovered and stagnated for a month. This was when ETH and the rest of the alts went through a mini alt season as the SATs recovered. And then, a month later, the whole market dumped from 69K quickly to 42K in 2-3 weeks.
I think something similar will follow leading to the Bitcoin ETF approval date. So IF Bitcoin spot ETF gets approved in August (most likely, there will be a delay, but it is possible that approval can come soon), then I suspect that prices will follow similar (BTC runs first, alts follow, market dump). I don’t think the liquidity is there to pump Bitcoin to +68% like the last time, but it is conceivable that it can pump to 36K-42K range. One reason being is that there is a lot of accumulation in the 30K range right now so I think the whales are accumulating here to go on a huge run soon.
If that happens, then the swing trading plan is obvious.
Start with 100% BTC right now If a run comes between now and the first approval date (mid/late August), recognize that this is the “buy the rumor” run of spot ETF. Most likely, alts will bleed against Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin and wait for the news. Usually, with the ETF, there will be leaks already in place on whether it will be accepted or not (similar thing happened with the futures). If it seems like it will be approved, then switch to alts later. If it seems like it will be rejected or delayed, switch to cash as “sell the news” will occur. Once enough profit has been made in alts, anticipate the market dump similar to 2021. Moreover, usually, there is a huge correction before the halving anyway so crypto will be overbought anyway. Buy back once Bitcoin has corrected quite a bit from the 36-42K range (I am thinking it goes down to 20-24K range again).
6). Wait for the halving run in 2024.
________
So that will be the ETF trading plan.
submitted by /u/simmol
[link] [comments]